Dick’s Sporting Goods on Tuesday said it’s expecting 2025 profits to be far lower than Wall Street anticipated, making it the latest retailer to forecast a rocky year ahead as consumers contend with tariffs, inflation and fears around a potential recession.
In an interview with CNBC, Executive Chairman Ed Stack said the company’s exposure to China, Mexico and Canada for sourcing is very small, but it recognizes that falling consumer confidence could impact spending.
“I do think it’s just a bit of an uncertain world out there right now,” said Stack. “What’s going to happen from a tariff standpoint? You know, if tariffs are put in place and prices rise the way that they might, what’s going to happen with the consumer?”
On a call with analysts, CEO Lauren Hobart insisted the company is not seeing a weak consumer, and said its guidance is based on the overall uncertain environment.
“We definitely are feeling great about our consumer,” said Hobart. “We are just reflecting an appropriate level of caution given so much uncertainty out in the marketplace.”
Shares of the company opened about 2% lower.
Despite the weak guidance, the sporting goods retailer posted its best holiday quarter on record. Its comparable sales rose 6.4%, far ahead of the 2.9% growth that analysts expected, according to StreetAccount.
Here’s how Dick’s did in its fiscal fourth quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Earnings per share: $3.62 vs. $3.53 expected
Revenue: $3.89 billion vs. $3.78 billion expected
The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 1 was $300 million, or $3.62 per share, compared with $296 million, or $3.57 per share, a year earlier.
Sales rose to $3.89 billion, up about 0.5% from $3.88 billion a year earlier. Like other retailers, Dick’s benefited from an extra week in the year-ago period, which has skewed comparisons. But unlike many of its peers, Dick’s still managed to grow both sales and profits during the quarter, even with one less selling week.
In the year ahead, Dick’s is expecting earnings per share to be between $13.80 and $14.40, well short of Wall Street estimates of $14.86, according to LSEG. It anticipates net sales will be between $13.6 billion and $13.9 billion, which at the high end is in line with estimates of $13.9 billion, according to LSEG. Dick’s expecting comparable sales to grow between 1% and 3%, compared with estimates of up 2.5%, according to StreetAccount.
The gloomy earnings outlook comes after a wide array of other retailers gave weak forecasts for the current quarter or the year ahead amid concerns about sliding consumer confidence and the impact tariffs and inflation could have on spending. Kohl’s also offered a weak outlook for the year ahead on Tuesday, leading its shares to plummet 15%.
Some retailers blamed an unseasonably cool February for a weak start to the current quarter, but most recognized they’re also operating in a tough macroeconomic backdrop, and it’s harder than ever to forecast how consumers are holding up. In February, consumer confidence slid to its lowest levels since 2021, the jobs report came in weaker than expected and unemployment ticked up. Over the last few years, a strong job market has led many economists to brush away concerns about rising credit card delinquencies and debt, but those cracks could grow deeper if unemployment continues to rise.
On Monday, some of those concerns triggered a stock market sell-off, extending losses after the S&P 500 posted three consecutive negative weeks. The Nasdaq Composite saw its worst day since September 2022, while the Dow lost nearly 900 points and closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since Nov. 1, 2023.
Beyond the uncertain macroeconomic environment, Dick’s plans to invest more heavily in its “House of Sport” concept and e-commerce in the year ahead, which it also expects will weigh on profits. The massive, 100,000-square-foot stores are a growth area for the company and include features like rock climbing walls and running tracks.
In the year ahead, Dick’s plans to spend $1 billion on a net basis building 16 additional House of Sport locations and 18 Field House locations, which take some of the experimental elements of the House of Sport but fit it into the size of a traditional Dick’s store.
The strategy comes at a strong point for sports in the country, which is expected to be a tail wind for the business. The 2026 World Cup will be held in North America, women’s sports are more popular than ever, and consumers are increasingly focused on health and wellness.
“We’re going to have a moment here in the next three or four years, from a sports standpoint, that I think is going to put sport on steroids,” said Stack. “We’re going into a sports moment right now, and we are investing very heavily into that sports moment over the next several years because this is going to last through [2030] and maybe beyond.”
— Additional reporting by CNBC’s Courtney Reagan.