US President Donald Trump’s self-imposed two-week delay to decide whether to strike Iran has sparked confusion and conjecture in Israel.
Some of Israel’s most senior officials had openly pushed for US involvement, arguing that American military involvement can shorten the conflict and allow Israel to achieve its goal of removing what is has long perceived as an existential threat of a nuclear Iran armed with ballistic missiles.
But after Trump’s new timeline, Israel’s political leaders are being careful in their statements, not wanting to be seen as pushing the president into the exact type of Middle East conflict he has long sought to avoid. Netanyahu and others are more cautious now in their public messaging, extolling the potential benefits of US involvement without calling for it.
US involvement would dramatically change the nature of the conflict, Israel has argued, including a far greater chance of successfully striking Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, which is hidden deep in a mountain south of Tehran. Such a decisive strike would likely require 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs carried only by American bombers.
“There is an understanding that the Israelis will go for Fordow anyway, but it can be much nastier and less decisive without the Americans,” said Yaki Dayan, the former Israeli consul general in Los Angeles.
After the first week of Israel’s strikes in Iran, the Israeli military no longer has the element of surprise, and the country’s political leadership must decide how far to go with the campaign, a decision that relies heavily on what Trump decides to do.
Israel has followed closely the debate within Trump’s MAGA base between the more isolationist wing that opposes US involvement in a new Middle East war and the camp that sees this as the best opportunity for decisive military action against Iran.
Publicly, Netanyahu has effusively praised Trump. On Wednesday, the Israeli leader said the two speak “frequently.” In a pre-recorded video statement, Netanyahu said, “I think President Trump for his backing.”
But Trump has deviated from the US’ traditional pro-Israel footing in the Middle East, including on negotiations with Iran, a ceasefire deal with the Houthis, and a trip to the region that skipped Israel. The White House decisions have exposed sharp divides between the two leaders.
Even so, the two governments have maintained an ongoing dialogue since Israel began attacking Iran. Dayan said that coordination between Netanyahu and Trump is “much better than people think,” but acknowledged that Trump makes decisions unilaterally, after consulting only a small circle of advisers.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was meeting his counterparts from the UK, Germany and France on Friday in Switzerland, which will allow the US to gauge the viability of a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear program. On Thursday, the White House said the contact between the US and Iran “has continued” without offering any details of the communications, even as Trump weighs military strikes.
Trump’s ‘smoke and mirrors’
But the government has not signaled any sense of hysteria about Trump’s decision to hold off on a strike on Iran for two weeks.
“He wouldn’t give himself a deadline that he would have to keep to if he hadn’t already made the decision,” the official said, while acknowledging this interpretation is the most favorable to Israel.
“If you follow the statements for the last two or three weeks, it’s been a lot of zigzagging,” said another Israeli official.
What seemed like a certainty to Israeli officials just 48 hours ago – that Trump would order US military involvement – now appears far less assured. Trump went from saying “we now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran” – taking credit for Israel’s military successes – to giving himself two more weeks to make what could be one the most fateful foreign policy decisions of his presidency.
Israel launched the operation against Iran without a commitment from the US that it would take part in the campaign, officials have said, but the belief was that the headlines of Israel’s military accomplishments could entice Trump to authorize US military involvement.
But as the campaign enters its second week, Israel’s “pace of success is slowing down,” the official said. And as Israel continues its operations over Iran – roughly a thousand miles away – the likelihood of error is increasing, which could affect not only Israel’s actions, but also reduce the chance of US involvement.
“Every day that this goes on, there’s a greater chance that something goes wrong,” the official said, without elaborating.
Pinkas said Trump’s deadline to make a decision underscores that the American leader “cannot be deciphered.” It also raises the possibility that “maybe Netanyahu overplayed his cards here,” he added.